Human Resources Development Section

HRD Country Profiles: Central Asian Republics

Maintaining HRD Services in Transitional Societies

Since the break-up of the former Soviet Union, the countries that form the Central Asian Republics (CARs) of the Commonwealth of Independent States have all been undergoing a painful period of transition. There are several demographic indicators of this transition. The population growth rate, birth rate, and life expectancy have all fallen, while the death rate has risen. Other general trends during the transition period include an increase in unemployment, a decrease in outputs and income, and deteriorating health care and education systems.

From ESCAP HRD Newsletter No 11, December 1998

POPULATION

The Central Asian Republics (CARs) consist of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. All countries are members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, which also includes the Russian Federation and other countries not generally considered to be within the Asian region.

The economic and social changes experienced by these countries since 1989 and their independence in 1991 is demonstrated in their population growth rate (table 1). The CARs have all experienced negative or slowing natural growth rates, due to declining birth rates and increased death rates (see Health section below). Another important factor in the population growth rate has been the immigration and emigration to and from countries in the region. This reflects the economic and social turmoil experienced by these countries, as non-ethnic populations have chosen to leave the countries, and ethnic populations have moved back in. In some countries, such as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, this has led to substantial emigration, although it has slowed down since 1995. In Kazakhstan, between 1991 and 1995, the population shrank by 0.2% per year. In Uzbekistan, between 1989 and 1995, there was a net emigration of 565,000. In other countries, immigration has led to a rapid population growth. Turkmenistan, for example, received between 1989 and 1995 a net immigration of 315,000, the highest number after Russia and Ukraine. The majority of this immigration was of ethnic Turkmen people from other Republics.

Unlike many other regions of the world, the CARs' population has become increasingly rural. This is due partly to the fact that the rural populations of the countries have a higher fertility rate than those in the urban areas. In addition, as employment opportunities decrease in urban areas, rural to urban migration has lessened. On average, three-quarters of the population live in rural areas.

ECONOMY

Since 1989, the CARs have all experienced a dramatic economic downturn. The effects of the post-1989 transition have led to a fall in output and income, a growth in poverty and a rise in unemployment. This can be seen in the CARs' Human Development Index (HDI) rankings, which have, for the most part, continued to drop. Between 1997-1998, with the exception of Armenia and Kazakhstan (which remained the same), the HDI levels fell for the CARs.

Income poverty has spread to around one-third of the population, signifying that approximately 120 million people in these Central Asian countries are living below the poverty line of US$4 per day. In addition, some of the CAR economies have suffered enormously due to civil conflict or external conflicts. The hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan devastated the economies of the two countries. Between 1989 and 1993, Armenia's GDP declined by 56%. Likewise, Azerbaijan's national income was decreased by roughly half over the same period. For these two countries, as well as Tajikistan (which suffered a civil conflict 1992-1993), the effects of the conflicts, coupled with the economic changes taking place, have been very harsh.

Without civil strife, other Republics have nevertheless experienced large drops in their national income. Kyrgyzstan's 1993 national income had dropped to 59.8% of its 1990 level, and fell a further 24.7% in 1994. In Kazakhstan, GDP in 1995 was 43.5% of its 1990 level.

Not surprisingly, therefore, the CARs are all experiencing growing unemployment. In the new economy, demand for jobs is much larger than the supply. This has lead to unemployment, and increasingly, hidden unemployment, whereby many workers are placed on leave without pay. This appears to be the particular case for those workers who are still in state-controlled sectors of some of the countries. In Azerbaijan, for example, it was estimated that in 1994 the real level of unemployment was 24.6% of the economically active labor force, much higher than the official unemployment rate.

HEALTH

The general health of the populations in the CARs is suffering greatly from this lack of resources. Life expectancy in the CARs, at 68, is only one year higher than it was 35 years ago. There is a normal gap in the life expectancy between women and men, but in the CARs the life expectancy of men has dropped even more markedly, due to effects of social and economic turmoil. Furthermore, infectious diseases and epidemics are on the rise in the CARs.

Adult and infant mortality rates have also risen since 1989. For example, in Kazakhstan, the death rate rose from 7.6 per 1,000 in 1989 to 10 per 1,000 in 1996. In Azerbaijan, the mortality rate from infectious diseases rose from 1,500 a year in 1991 to at least 2,054 in 1994. Meanwhile, in Kazakhstan, the incidence of infectious and parasitic diseases increased 95.5% between 1990 and 1994. In Tajikistan, the infant mortality rate was reported at 32 per 1,000 in 1996 although it is thought to be higher; in Turkmenistan in was 46.4 per 1,000 live births in 1994 (table 2).

While the death and infant mortality rates are rising, the birth rate is decreasing. For example, in Azerbaijan, the birth rate went from 27 per 1,000 in 1991 to 16.8 in 1996. In Kazakhstan, it decreased from 23 per 1,000 in 1989 to 15.2 per 1,000 in 1996. In Turkmenistan, it fell from 35 per 1,000 in 1989 to 29.9 in 1995.

Since the transition, the CARs have all experienced deteriorating health care systems and facilities. There have been major funding cutbacks and reform measures have been slow. Under the Soviet-style system, medicine in the CARs was geared toward in-patient, hospital treatment. This has proven to be quite costly and often ineffective. However, the transition to out-patient care has been slow. Health care services are often low in quality and lack the necessary preventative care components. Funding shortages, lack of appropriate infrastructure and systems, as well as medicine shortages, are contributing to a crisis of the health care system.

In addition, the health care systems are suffering from emigration factors. For example, in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyzstan, many of those working as doctors have emigrated. Many countries thus now face shortages of doctors and other trained staff.

The deterioration of the health care system in the Central Asian Republics reflects the increasing poverty experienced by the population of the countries, as well as the economic and social turmoil that has occurred. A lack of government resources has added greatly to the health care crisis. While the OECD countries spend, in general, 9.7% of their GNP on health, the CARs on average spend less than 5 percent. It is estimated that 4% of GNP went to health in Uzbekistan, while in Kazakhstan only 1.8% was spent. Thus as GNP has declined substantially, so has the share allocated to health care, giving much reason for concern for the health of the CAR populations.

EDUCATION

As with health care, spending on education has been drastically reduced in the CARs, due to economic crises as well as internal and external conflicts. In Armenia, for example, while education received 6.6% of GDP in 1990, it was down to 1.3% in 1995, and to 2.5% in 1996. In Kazakhstan, education went from 7% of GDP in 1990 to 4% in 1997. In particular, spending on higher education systems has been the most reduced. For example, in Uzbekistan, between 1993 and 1994 expenditures on higher education fell from 2.7% of GDP to less than one percent. (Table 3.)

This lack of resources has thus led to declining levels of education. In countries such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, given their economic situations, literacy levels have remained quite high. But while literacy has traditionally been high in the CARs, it is expected to fall as the populations' education level drops. The number of students attending school is also falling. In addition, in countries such as Azerbaijan, many of the educated population, including professors, have emigrated. These factors are all leading to an erosion of the academic and skills base, and a lowering of academic standards.

In addition, the education systems in the CARs is still in the transition from the pre-1989 Soviet-style teaching. This means that many people are not prepared to work in the market economy. Workers do not have the appropriate education needed in the post-1989 period. For example, in Kazakhstan, while literacy rates are still very high, the population has low skills; in 1993 there were 106,500 trained skilled workers in Kazakhstan, a drop of 44.2% since 1985, according to UNDP.